Only visits to the gym count for this market, not other sporting activities. If I have worked out at the gym a total of 8 times or more in January, this market will be resolved with YES, regardless of how many times I have been to the gym in any single week.
For more background info check out my other market:
https://manifold.markets/redcat/will-i-either-go-to-the-gym-or-do-a?r=cmVkY2F0
I will only bet on YES and will not sell my shares early.
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I currently have the flu and probably can't go to the gym this weekend.
So far I have been to the gym on the following days:
01.01.
06.01.
09.01.
12.01.
15.01.
24.01.
What information do potential no voters have access too that might give us confidence to actually vote no? On questions that the creator has complete control of the resolution - you can simple choose to do the criteria or not. I feel hesitation voting the opposite way of the creator. This isn't like stocks where you can't control the outcome.
Is there something else besides your own decision you are using to determine if you go to the gym or not?
@colorednoise All I see is what he considers "equivalent workout" seems that market will resolve same as this one. If he decides to fulfill the resolution criteria it will resolve yes. If he makes the choice to not workout it resolves no. Is there something other than his own decision that goes into if he will or will not work out?
@Testiecool The basis for both markets is your trust that I will resolve honestly. Basically, I am betting against my depression and other adverse circumstances that I will have the discipline to realise my goals. There are several people with whom I have shared my plan and who motivate me, two of them being: my colleague with whom I regularly go disc golfing and my therapist. The colleague registered on Manifold to bet on these markets, he's @philinesgrosserbruder.
You can be sure that I will honestly resolve these markets, firstly because I will probably not bet enough mana to make it worthwhile and secondly because I would be personally ashamed to act against both my integrity and my health by manipulating the outcome of these markets. I am determined to follow through with my plan, but I won't see it as a big personal defeat if my plans don't work out, but will probably just create new markets for the rest of the year instead. This is a playful experiment to motivate me.
You also ask what other information the NO voters can draw on and whether there are factors other than my personal decision that influence me. I'm not 100% sure what you mean by that.
Unfortunately, I don't use any kind of fitness tracker, but I could log when I exercise and share it with you here, if that helps. Apart from that, I will regularly talk to my colleague who also bets here about how my plan is going.