If I go round-trip from my house to NYC alone, will I die?

Question

My house is about 20 miles north of NYC in a suburban area. I am going to walk from my school to the train station and take the train to grand central, take the subway to wall street area for an appointment i have, back to grand central, then take the train back up and walk home

Will I die? If I get injured or harmed, resolves on a numeric scale.

If I don't end up doing this after all by the end of the year, N/A

Will I die? If I get injured or harmed, resolves on a numeric scale.

If I don't end up doing this after all by the end of the year, N/A

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 2% chance (4 traders, as of Apr 12, 2026).

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