Will the Long Term Future Fund exist in a year?
19
187
390
Sep 18
93%
chance

In order to count as LTFF it has to be descended from the current LTFF and serve basically the same purpose, that purpose being to fund longtermist/x-risk mitigation projects in the ~$1k-$500k price range through an open application, and to not be OpenPhil.

For the sake of resolution, LTFF would still be LTFF if it...

  • changes its name

  • goes through a Ship of Theseus-like transformation where every role gets handed to a new person throughout the year

  • splits into an AI safety fund and a biosecurity fund

And would not be LTFF if it...

  • shuts down and somebody who used to work there starts a new fund that serves the same purpose

  • starts a new AI safety fund and later the original LTFF shuts down but many of the same people work at the new AI safety fund

  • gets eaten by OpenPhil

Let me know if I'm missing any other plausible scenarios!

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

If the LTFF announces that it's shutting down and stops accepting new donors, but still does a phaseout over several months, does this resolve YES? (I am NOT asking this question based on any private information.)

bought Ṁ8 of NO

hedging

bought Ṁ35 of YES

Linch and co have been killing it with their posts recently so I’d be very surprised if they didn’t continue in a year