raar70's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.39
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when raar70 bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will Destiny re-dye his blue hair [YES] or chop it of [NO] (neither will result in N/A)NOṀ100
- Will someone debate Destiny on what he said about Vaush yesterday? That he's no different from a nazi and wishes he would die from an earlobe infection.NOṀ100
- Will Destiny still have blue hair on January 1st, 2023?YESṀ65
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%