Will Beeper Mini break again by the end of 2023?
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resolved Dec 18
Resolved
YES

Beeper Mini is an app which allows Android users to send blue-bubbles(iMessages). This was done by reverse-engineering the iMessage protocol. Recently, the app stopped working, however it is back https://blog.beeper.com/p/beeper-mini-is-back

Related question: https://manifold.markets/alice/will-beeper-mini-stop-working-by-th

Disclosure: I did lose money on that question.

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predicted YES

From the in-app updates channel:

Update on the iMessage situation.

More than 60% of Beeper Mini and Cloud users are currently unable to send or receive iMessages at this time. We’re fighting to get this fixed 🤞. In the meantime, you may see notifications or emails that a ‘new Mac’ has been added to your account. We do not use Mac servers anymore, but our bridge appears to Apple as if it were a Mac.

@wasabipesto 60% is broken. Resolved as YES

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Official statement of Beeper saying that Apple blocked them again on December 14th: https://twitter.com/onbeeper/status/1735127340357918874

Further reporting: https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/12/apple-partly-halts-beepers-imessage-app-again-suggesting-a-long-fight-ahead/

This arguably resolves to yes.

predicted YES

@lxgr And an official Beeper account:

> The standard is reliable management across all the chat apps we support. iMessage is falling short this weekend and we're working to restore it.
https://www.reddit.com/r/beeper/comments/18jd0zi/comment/kdnkpsu/

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@wasabipesto Not sure if this should count as Beeper Mini being broken or not. In my opinion, 5% is such a small amount of users that it shouldn't be counted as "broken", but I'm willing to hear out other users. As a side note, I have not been affected by this bug and I can still send and receive iMessages with Beeper Mini.

predicted YES

@quadruple "Works on my device" isn't proof of anything, to be honest; reporting by reputable news outlets should count more than that.

@wasabipesto I'd argue that 5% of users is not enough to count the app as being "broken". Especially if the only thing the affected users have to do to repair it is to reinstall the app. However, if people agree that it is broken, I will resolve it as such.

predicted YES

@quadruple Can you still send and receive messages? It seems to be completely broken at this point.

@lxgr Tested just now, 6 messages went through(3 from me, 3 from iPhone), then it died for iPhone(Not delivered). I'm gonna try reinstalling the app and if it still doesn't work, I'll wait for an announcement or news articles coming out, though it's looking like a resolved YES right now.

predicted YES

@quadruple Some more recent media coverage:


https://9to5google.com/2023/12/17/beeper-imessage-blocked-apple-again/

Now, Beeper Mini and Beeper Cloud have been hit yet again, this time taking out “more than 60%” of users who have iMessage active on their accounts.

The outage, which appears to have been ongoing since the early hours of December 17 (personally, I’ve been unable to send messages all day, and it’s been widely mentioned in the Beeper subreddit)