Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the first round of official direct or indirect diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran (including mediated talks via third parties like Oman, Qatar, or Pakistan) occurring on or after August 3, 2026, results in a ceasefire agreement that successfully lasts for at least 30 consecutive days.

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Detailed Rules for Resolution:

• Eligible Negotiations: The negotiations must be widely recognized by major international media outlets as official diplomatic efforts (whether direct or indirect/mediated) between representatives of the U.S. and Iran aimed at de-escalation, conflict resolution, or establishing a truce.

• Ceasefire Definition: The negotiations must result in a mutually agreed ceasefire or pause in hostilities.

• 30-Day Durability: The ceasefire must go into effect and remain active for at least 30 consecutive days. The ceasefire will be deemed to have failed (resolving the market to NO) if, prior to the completion of 30 consecutive days:

  • Either the U.S. or Iranian government officially declares the ceasefire terminated, canceled, or collapsed.

  • Sustained military strikes or direct combat operations between U.S. armed forces and Iranian military/state forces resume and are widely reported as a breakdown of the truce. (Isolated, minor skirmishes that do not result in an official termination of the ceasefire will not trigger a "NO" resolution unless officially declared to have broken the truce). Strikes between Iran and Israel do not count.

• Cutoff Date: If no official negotiations or talks occur, or if negotiations occur but do not produce a ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to NO. If a ceasefire is agreed upon before December 31, 2026, but the 30-day evaluation period extends past this date, the market will remain open until the 30 days are complete.