Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if OpenAI officially releases a new model family to the general public or via its developer API on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

For the purposes of this market, a "new model family" is defined as:

1. Any model officially designated under the GPT-6 lineage (e.g., GPT-6, GPT-6o, GPT-6-mini).

2. The official public or API release of the "Astra" model family (regardless of whether it is branded as "Astra," GPT-6, or another major name).

3. Any brand-new, distinct model naming scheme or lineage introduced by OpenAI that is not part of the GPT-5 series (e.g., GPT-5.0 through GPT-5.6) or the pre-existing o1/o3/o4 reasoning series.

Notes and Edge Cases:

• Incremental updates to existing mid-2026 families—such as GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, or minor iterations of the o1/o3/o4 series—will not count toward a YES resolution unless OpenAI explicitly markets and launches them as a brand-new model lineage or family.

• "Released" means the model must be actively accessible to either paying ChatGPT subscribers (Plus, Pro, Enterprise) or via OpenAI's public developer API. Limited-access research previews, closed alpha/beta testing, or government-only demos do not qualify as a release.

• Resolution will be verified using the official OpenAI Newsroom and OpenAI's official Model Release Notes.