Will OpenAI or Google have a stronger model by the end of 2026?

Question

Resolution criteria

As judged by Artificial Analysis scores and maybe some combination of other popular meta-benchmarks (ECI, etc.) if there is a tie. Resolves YES if the first company is ranked higher and resolves NO if the second company is ranked higher.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 87% chance (13 traders, as of Sep 20, 2026).

Resolution criteria

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