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What will be the trial-level outcome of the 2026 federal Meta youth-harms trial?
1
Ṁ1kṀ342
Sep 29
47%
Meta liable under both COPPA and state consumer-protection claims
12%
Meta liable under COPPA only
10%
Meta liable under state consumer-protection claims only
14%
Meta not liable on any tried claim
7%
Settlement before a complete liability ruling
5%
Mistrial or retrial without a complete merits ruling
5%
No complete trial-level ruling by December 31, 2026

This market concerns People of the State of California v. Meta Platforms, Inc., No. 4:23-cv-05448-YGR, within MDL No. 3047 in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California.

Resolve to one answer using Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers's first complete trial-level merits disposition covering the tried COPPA claims and the consumer-protection claims of California, Colorado, Kentucky, and New Jersey. Ignore appeals.

“State claims” means at least one tried consumer-protection claim. If a settlement ends all tried claims before a complete liability ruling, resolve Settlement. If a mistrial or retrial order leaves no complete merits result, resolve Mistrial or retrial. If there is no complete trial-level ruling by 11:59 PM PT on December 31, resolve No complete trial-level ruling.

An advisory jury verdict is not controlling if the judge later enters a different complete ruling. Sources: the federal court docket and official court orders.

The market closes at 8:00 PM PT on September 28, twelve hours before the earliest expected six-week trial endpoint.

Market context
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