Is the current bird flu strain man-made?
14
100Ṁ370
2026
7%
chance

Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve to YES if credible, peer-reviewed scientific publications or official statements from the USDA, University of Wisconsin, or Rotterdam University confirm that the circulating strain clade 2.3.4.4b of bird flu is the result of gain-of-function researchconducted at the USDA Poultry Research Laboratory in Athens, Georgia.

• The market will resolve based on direct admissions, peer-reviewed papers, or high-profile investigations (e.g., government or independent inquiries).

• The market will resolve to NO if no such confirmation is made by December 31, 2025.

If conflicting information arises, the market will resolve to NO unless conclusive evidence supports the claim.

Key Sources for Resolution:

• Peer-reviewed journals

• USDA official publications/statements

• Publications by University of Wisconsin or Rotterdam University

• Reports from reputable media outlets or official investigations

Relevant references:

• Dr. Peter McCullough’s public statements

• Research papers by Nick Hulscher

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