Resolution Criteria:
The market resolves “Yes” if Bitcoin (BTC) falls below $90,000 USD at any point during December 2024, based on the last price in any 1-minute candlestick on Coinbase.
• If Bitcoin does not fall below $90K during December 2024, the market resolves “No.”
Resolution Date & Time: December 31, 2024, at 23:59 PST, or earlier if the price condition is met.
1,000
3.00My public experiment with TimeGPT. I have no idea if it will work.
This is based on these data:
Bitcoin price today, BTC to USD live price, marketcap and chart | CoinMarketCap
Based on a year of weekly data. Lowest daily price:
timeOpen TimeGPT
2024-12-02 87122.375
2024-12-09 83965.078125
2024-12-16 80847.2265625
2024-12-23 78583.0390625
2024-12-30 76875.6015625
2025-01-06 75158.671875
2025-01-13 73818.453125
Based on a month of daily data. Lowest daily price:
timeOpen TimeGPT
2024-12-04 93714.8671875
2024-12-05 95064.421875
2024-12-06 95933.4375
2024-12-07 96152.734375
2024-12-08 95752.921875
2024-12-09 94840.125
2024-12-10 94357.6484375
2024-12-11 94215.2109375
2024-12-12 95997.53125
2024-12-13 96578.0703125
2024-12-14 96740.703125
2024-12-15 96420.171875
2024-12-16 95162.9140625
2024-12-17 93792.265625
2024-12-18 93894.109375
2024-12-19 96252.171875
2024-12-20 96741.0
2024-12-21 96724.765625
2024-12-22 96352.7734375
2024-12-23 95218.828125
I go with the second guess for now.