Position's calibration
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Position bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
10 largest bets for each bucket
50%
80%
- This market will resolve to a "Yes" on Nov 26. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ50
- This market will resolve to a "Yes" on Nov 26. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ50
- This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ5 per person.NOṀ50
- This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ50 per person.NOṀ50
- This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ50 per person.NOṀ50
- This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ20 per person.NOṀ50
- This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ1 per person.NOṀ50
- This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ10 per person.NOṀ50
90%
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 25 2pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ50
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 25 7pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ50
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 25 7pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ50
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 25 3pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ50
- This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ5 per person.NOṀ50
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 25 4pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ50
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 25 4pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ50
- This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ20 per person.NOṀ50
- This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ1 per person.NOṀ50
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 25 6pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ50
95%
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 25 2pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ50
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 25 3pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ50
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 25 6pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ50
- This market resolves to Yes. Max position Ṁ40 per person.NOṀ50
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 25 5pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ50
- This market will resolve to Yes at Nov 25 5pm ET. Max position 20Ṁ per person please.YESṀ50