How big will the "Dunesday" box office weekend be? (Dec 18–20, 2026)

Question

"Dunesday" weekend: Dec 18–20, 2026 — Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Part Three both open Friday, Dec 18.

Each option resolves YES if the combined domestic (US/Canada) box office for all films over the 3-day weekend of Friday Dec 18 – Sunday Dec 20, 2026 exceeds that amount, per Box Office Mojo's weekend chart (final actuals, not Sunday estimates, unadjusted for inflation). Otherwise NO.

For reference, the current all-time record weekend is $434M (Jul 31 – Aug 2, 2026, led by Spider-Man: Brand New Day). The previous record was Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend at ~$402M.

Options are independent; more than one can resolve YES. Resolves after final actuals post (expected by Dec 23). If Box Office Mojo's chart is unavailable, The Numbers' weekend chart is used.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, More than $350M, followed by More than $400M and More than $434M (new record) are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of Oct 30, 2026).

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