From Software has a history of making extensive balance changes to their games. In Elden Ring this has been doubly true.
In order for one of the options to resolve YES, it must be specifically introduced in the upcoming dlc Shadow of the Erdtree, and later nerfed. So a nerf to something that exists in the base game would not count.
A "nerf" is a change which makes the thing worse, less effective, etc. If something is made worse in some aspects and better in others, it still counts as a nerf. Nerfs exclusive to pvp, or exclusive to pve, also count. (PvP is the game mode where human players face each other. PvE is the game mode where human players face computer-controlled enemies.)
Examples of things which have been nerfed so far:
Class of weapons: Colossal swords (crouch R1)
Sorcery: Stars of Ruin (tracking)
Incantation: Dragon incantations (damage in pvp)
Ash of War: Wave of Gold, Royal Knight Resolve (damage)
Armor: Raptor's Black Feathers (bonus to jump attack in pvp)
"Specific weapon" resolves YES if a specific weapon has aspects other than its ash of war nerfed. If only the ash of war is nerfed, "Specific weapon" resolves NO and "Ash of War" resolves YES.
Added: for the purposes of this market, weapons are things which appear in the Fextralife page for weapons. In particular, this includes staffs, seals, torches, and tools, but not shields.
I had thought that "class of weapon" was unlikely because I didn't think they would introduce a whole class of weapons in the dlc. But it has since been revealed that they will introduce EIGHT new classes of weapon, and so for me that has become the most likely option.