PB's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -10.21
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when PB bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
60%
80%
- Will more than 100 people die in political violence in the West Bank during the last three months of 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Israel seize and occupy any new previously unoccupied territory by the end of 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Israel seize and occupy any new previously unoccupied territory by the end of 2023?YESṀ100
90%