Patrick McKenzie's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.5
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Patrick McKenzie bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
- Will Changpeng Zhao ("CZ", cofounder of Binance exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?YESṀ350
- Will Sam Trabucco (former co-CEO of Alameda Research) be arrested before March 31st 2023?NOṀ40
- Will Sam Trabucco (former co-CEO of Alameda Research) be arrested before March 31st 2023?NOṀ35
60%
- Will Changpeng Zhao ("CZ", cofounder of Binance exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?YESṀ500
- Will CZ (CEO of Binance) be indicted in the US before the end of 2023?NOṀ500
- Will either of SBF's parents be charged by the end of 2023 with a crime for their involvement with FTX / Alameda Research?NOṀ250
80%
90%
95%