Motivation:

Somewhere around March 26 to March 29, 2025 there appears to be a steeper inflection point for the recent forecast models' ECM and GEFS-BC surface temperature fields (global 2m temperature mean), where the forecasts have been (relatively strongly) trending in opposite directions (ECM predicts a downward trend and GEFS-BC predicts an upward trend).

Will either model predict the trend correctly or neither (temp stays the roughly same)?

Resolution Criteria:

Resolves to the difference of ERA5 data of March 29 minus March 26, when the status for both temperatures reach FINAL status.

If the difference is 0.00 (negligible) then it resolves to March 29 ~= March 26.

Data is expected to be available (approximately) by April 1 or April 2, but this question will resolve as early as the data is provided.

Resolution source:

Resolves to ERA5 when status is BOTH FINAL for March 26 and 28, 2025 here:

https://sites.ecmwf.int/data/climatepulse/data/series/era5_daily_series_2t_global.csv

NOTE: Does not resolve to values when either are PRELIMINARY.