Will Nintendo announce a new console by the end of 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

This market resolves to YES if Nintendo announces publicly and officially a new console to succeed the current one, Nintendo Switch. The market resolves to NO if a new revision of Nintendo Switch is announced, or if there are no console announcements.

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predicted NO

@pakoito Would it count if Nintendo makes some kind of incredibly weaksauce "announcement" of the fact that they are developing some new console with some fancy codename, but with very few other details? For example, Nintendo acknowledged that they were developing the "NX" a full two years before the original Switch released (see this headline from March 2015: https://www.polygon.com/2015/3/17/8230617/nintendos-new-hardware-the-nx), but I think everyone would agree that the reveal date for the Switch should rightfully be considered to be October 20, 2016, when they actually told us the name, showed us the shape of the console, some games that would be on it, etc, via this iconic trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5uik5fgIaI

bought Ṁ0 of NO

I don't think they'll announce it because they can't sell it on Christmas, and they want people to focus on the Switch during the holidays.

My notion is that they announced the Switch on October only because they realized the Wii U would not sell well during 2016's holidays. I expect an announcement in the first half of 2024.

bought Ṁ35 of YES

People have known for quite a while that it is coming. They might as well announce it with a teaser at Gamescom, and control the narrative. The constant rumours have been nauseating and I think Nintendo is feeling it too.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Noit IMO the idea of a holiday 2024 release argues AGAINST a 2023 announcement. The original Switch was announced on Oct 20, 2016, and released only four months later on March 3, 2017. Why would Nintendo hugely cannibalize their holiday 2023 sales of the original switch, by letting everyone know that a successor is coming? I think they are very likely to announce sometime in spring/summer of 2024. https://www.eurogamer.net/nintendo-switch-successor-reportedly-due-late-2024

predicted YES

Re-reading the resolution criteria, you’re actually saying that if Nintendo announces the Switch Minor Revision on Monday, you will resolve NO even if they then announced the Switch Successor on Tuesday. I’m sure that’s not what you meant, but please can you clarify?

@Noit
> if Nintendo announces the Switch Minor Revision on Monday, you will resolve NO

> The market resolves to NO if a new revision of Nintendo Switch is announced

The meaning of a new console is a new generation. A generation is GB -> GBA -> NDS -> 3DS or SNES -> N64 -> GC -> Wii -> Wii U -> Switch. Neither the 64HDD, nor the New Nintendo 3DS, or Switch OLED are new consoles.

@Noit Oh, you're being even more anal. "By the end of 2023" is the deadline.

predicted YES

@pakoito Thanks! Specific and clear resolution is important here, some of us have been stung by deliberately imprecise criteria.

predicted YES

I count on gamescom.

bought Ṁ18 of NO

Seems likely that they’ll make a new version of the Switch before they announce a totally new console.