osmarks's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.72
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when osmarks bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
- Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?YESṀ100
- Will forms of encryption that prevent Internet services from spying on their users face restrictions in the United States during 2023?NOṀ25
- Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?YESṀ15
40%
50%
- Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?YESṀ300
- Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?YESṀ110
- If Yudkowsky and Hotz debate in 2023, will Yudkowsky "win"?NOṀ100
60%
70%
80%
- Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?YESṀ150
- Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?YESṀ150
- Will someone fine tune a smut generator using llama-2 by the end of the week?NOṀ100
90%
95%
97%