# optimusprime's calibration

Grade: B-, Score: -2.77

Resolution probability

Probability after bet

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when optimusprime bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES bets

NO bets

3 largest bets for each bucket

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

- 17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?YESṀ3,000
- Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?YESṀ2,000
- 1. Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2023?YESṀ2,000

90%

95%

97%