Let's make a Manifold glossary!
Comment with a term that's commonly used on this site but likely unfamiliar to a newbie. Include a definition, and for an extra 20%, an example sentence, usage note, or link to more info.
M5 per entry (limit 10 per user), or more if someone adds to the bounty. Properly formatted entries get you an extra M1.
Related questions
Profit:
(On an individual market): The expected value of the shares a user currently holds in the market (determined based on the market's probability), plus the total amount of payouts the user has received either from the market's resolution or selling shares, minus the total amount of mana spent on shares.
(Overall profit of a user): The total profit of a user on all markets they've participated in.
(Over a given time period): The profit of a user at the beginning of the time period, minus their profit at the end of the time period. This could refer either to their overall profit over this time period, or their profit on a specific market or set of markets.
Example: I bought 100 shares in this market when the probability was 10%. Now the probability has gone up to 20%, so I have a 10 mana profit.
Realized profit:
Profit obtained from markets that have already resolved, or profit obtained by buying shares and later selling them. In other words, it is the profit that you have already gotten the mana from and won't lose even if a market resolves differently from the way it's currently expected to resolve.
Contrast this with unrealized profit, which is profit that comes from holding shares that have increased in expected value. This type of profit can be lost if the market resolves in the opposite direction from the shares you hold, causing their value to go to zero.
Example: I bought 10,000 shares in a market that had a probability of 10%. Now the market has gone up to 20%, giving me a profit of 1,000. But it's all unrealized: If the market resolves NO tomorrow, I'll have a profit of -1,000 instead.
Leagues profit:
Profit that counts towards Leagues. Leagues only counts profit from bets made during the month that the League takes place in, and it also excludes certain types of markets.
Example: A user manipulated his Leagues profit by making big bets just before the end of Leagues to increase the value of shares he had bought that month.
Sell value:
The amount of mana that you can currently sell shares for. This is always lower than their expected value, since selling the shares will move the market to a lower probability.
Example: This market says I have a profit, but if I sell my shares now, I will take a loss. Their sell value isn't as high as the price I bought them for.
Categorical Market /ˌkæt.ɪˈɡɒr.ɪ.kəl ˈmɑː.kɪt/
- Definition: A categorical market is a type of prediction market where outcomes are not binary but include a range of discrete possibilities. Each outcome within a categorical market should be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, meaning that only one outcome can occur, and one of the listed outcomes will definitely occur. Categorical markets are often referred to as “multiple choice markets”
- Example Sentence: In the categorical market for predicting the next president, participants could buy shares in multiple candidates, each representing a distinct outcome.
Resolution Source /ˌrɛz.əˈluː.ʃən sɔːs/
- Definition: A resolution source in a prediction market is the source of information specified by the market creator to resolve the market. If the resolution source is a third party it is consider best-practice to include a link to the resolution source in the market description.
- Example Sentence: The prediction market for the presidential election designated the state's electoral commission as the resolution source to confirm the winner.