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MANIFOLD
How high will the monthly average H100 Index get before January 1, 2029?
2
Ṁ1kṀ50
2028
50%
≥$5/hour
48%
≥$10/hour
48%
≥$20/hour
48%
≥$30/hour
  • Default market to be used for resolution is Ornn: https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute

  • Fallback market if Ornn is shut down or becomes inaccurate is Silicon Data: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index/h100

  • If both of them shutdown or no longer showcase the for the H100 specifically, reasonable alternative sources (and/or reasonable extrapolation from newer hardware) will be used instead

  • The market will resolve per the spirit of the question, so various shenanigans such as "Ornn had a glitch and price was $100 for 2 days" wouldn't count

  • The market is forward looking, meaning that it will only resolve based of future data

For context, today (July 29th) the Ornn H100 index is at $2.78/hour. Silicon Data's number is $2.76/hour.

Market was created based off today's Dwarkesh blog post where he predicts the price might 10x in the coming years. This would roughly correspond to the "$30/hour" option.

Market context
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