Resolved based on whether Lance Stroll will be one of the 22 primary drivers for the start of the 2026 season. Stroll being a reserve / 'third' driver will not count.
The question will resolve:
if all 11 teams confirm their line-ups for 2026 without Stroll amongst them. (Aston advising that Stroll won't be continuing with them will not, of itself, be enough);
if Stroll otherwise confirms that he's retiring as a primary driver (or taking a break for 2026); or
at the start of the first race weekend of the 2026 season, if Stroll does in fact drive for one of the teams (or it's evident that that's the intention, but he's temporarily off having his appendix removed).
(The difference in the times at which points 1 & 3 are assessed is to allow for the possibility that Stroll has a change of heart over the December-March break.)
If you spot anything that could be clarified in the resolution criteria, please let me know.
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