@PamAnders did you read the question wrong?

@TobyBW i rushed to vote for the opposite panicked and messed up

@PamAnders Yeah I've done the same before.

@TobyBW holy f bro rank 1. any tips?

@PamAnders Sure. I only started last month so I'm probably not the best to ask, but I try to generate a lot of profit off of certainties that aren't yet recognized. Like you did on this market. See https://manifold.markets/DanielParris/will-my-article-on-ai-prediction-ma. I bet after it was obvious that it wouldn't get to 5000. More than that, I work mainly on markets that resolve same day/within the next hour so my mana isn't locked up.

Recently I've been betting a lot on basketball games. I take advantage when others incorrectly estimate the chances, but I try not to get too invested until the game is most of the way through.

The main dangers of my strategy are 1. things changing last minute. See https://manifold.markets/MarkoMk0/will-xqc-beat-forsens-minecraft-tim. and 2. market creators not being active and not resolving their markets. See https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-lake-superior-be-below-recorde.

@TobyBW i"ll keep this in mind thanks

@TobyBW Sorry to bud in, but starting last month and being this high is impressive. So do think it is better to be of the cautious type or take gambles often?

@nobody I’d say cautious is better. The way I bet probably wouldn’t be called cautious by most, making big all-in type bets. But I only do that when I am sure of the outcome. I put a lot of mana on the line in some markets, but the caution comes in choosing when to bet. I bet on this market once it was pretty clear who would win. The downside is that often you don’t make as much mana as those that got in early, but only half of those that bet early are bet correctly. I try to be right much more often than that.

@TobyBW Ok so you exercise less risk, more investment but sure shot rewards no matter what. Valuable insight. Thank you and good day.