How many first-year undergraduate applicants will be accepted from Caltech's waitlist for the Class of 2026 (i.e. freshmen entering in Fall 2022)?
5
125
resolved Jun 20
0.0%
< 10
0.0%
>= 10
54%
< 10
46%
>= 10

*****09/21/2022: I have not forgotten about this market. Caltech has not posted its 2022-2023 CDS yet (I checked https://finance.caltech.edu/Resources/cds). This market will resolve as soon as data becomes available, but I do not know for sure when that will be. If you find resolution data before I do, please comment it and I'll resolve the market.

This market resolves to YES when the waitlist closes and statistics are released. Resolution data will be sourced from an official statement, most likely via email announcement or Caltech's Common Data Set. This information should be available by the end of August 2022. Apr 5, 11:48am: Caltech's Common Data Sets (CDS) from previous years can be found online. Here's the CDS from 2020-2021, containing data for the Class of 2024:https://iro.caltech.edu/documents/20056/caltech_cds_2020-2021.pdf 10 students were accepted from the waitlist that year. I was unable to find data for the Class of 2025 online, but I know that 0 were accepted from the waitlist last year (this announced via email; I can add an Imgur screenshot or something if the CDS just doesn't exist online). Some more useful data: Caltech admitted 536 students for the Class of 2024, and apparently 432 (I saw this on Reddit but haven't verified it) for the Class of 2026. Apr 28, 8:26pm: Free arb @ https://manifold.markets/nmehndir/will-the-linked-market-be-accurate !

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https://finance.caltech.edu/documents/25197/cds_2023.pdf
15 admitted (see page 13)

bought αΉ€100 of >= 10
Adjusting >= 10 probability back up to drive more attention to this market. Interested in seeing some more opinions. Note that in the 1 fluke year (2014) when 47 were accepted from the waitlist, 576 students were admitted overall. This year, only 432 were*, and it seems unlikely that this is because of gap year students (i.e. already locked-in spots) because I'd expect that to have been more of a thing last year. *Note that # of admitted students is not quite directly correlated with # of waitlisted students; the admit # has decreased to ~520ish for the past few years and waitlist admits have been 0-10 for the past few years. However, 432 is still an unprecedentedly steep drop.
bought αΉ€1 of < 10
I'm not sure, mainly because they accepted 100 fewer students than usual this year. I expect they're trying some new way to increase yield, but there's probably going to be some error--especially considering that Caltech has notoriously low yield compared to the other Ivy+. Also, here's the CDS for Fall 2014: https://finance.caltech.edu/documents/15097/cds2015_final.pdf 47 were admitted off the waitlist that year.
bought αΉ€6 of < 10
test
bought αΉ€250 of < 10
There, that seems like a good amount. Do you agree that the documents above make this answer more than 80% likely?
bought αΉ€400 of < 10
I've looked through some of the years and they're 0 or one-digit except for the one you found as 10
bought αΉ€500 of < 10
https://finance.caltech.edu/Resources/cds lists statistics from past years, including the year you only found in an email

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