Does not have to exceed US returns every year. Measured by start and end date of an arbitrary date window in which is at least 60 months long.

For 10,000 invested in Nov 20, 2019, these are the results as of today, Nov 20, 2024:

In this case, I would read "US" as winning.

'000':33 '10':32 '128.95':56 '13':55 '14.80':53 '19':50 '20':37,47 '2019':38 '2024':48 '5.60':58 '60':28 '925.53':51 'arbitrari':20 'c':1 'cagr':52,57 'case':61 'date':17,21 'end':16 'everi':10 'exceed':7 'invest':34 'l':2 'least':27 'long':30 'measur':12 'month':29 'nov':36,46 'read':64 'result':42 'return':9 'start':14 'today':45 'us':8,65 'veu':54 'vti':49 'win':67 'window':22 'would':63 'year':11

The question resolves "No" if, at the time Thomas Pynchon's death is widely reported — e.g. in the New York Times or the New Yorker — there is no newer novel than Bleeding Edge (2013) listing him as the sole human author. The question also resolves "No" if a novel (speculated or known to have been written by Thomas Pynchon) is published pseudonymously.

Otherwise the question resolves "Yes," even if the novel is widely reported to have been co-authored with an AI.

'2013':35 'ai':84 'also':45 'author':42,81 'bleed':33 'co':80 'co-author':79 'death':13 'e.g':17 'edg':34 'even':69 'human':41 'known':53 'list':36 'new':20,25 'newer':30 'novel':31,50,72 'otherwis':64 'pseudonym':63 'publish':62 'pynchon':11,60 'question':3,44,66 'report':16,75 'resolv':4,46,67 'sole':40 'specul':51 'thoma':10,59 'time':9,22 'vlad':1 'wide':15,74 'written':57 'yes':68 'york':21 'yorker':26

https://www.ncaa.com/sports/basketball-men/d1

Will resolve yes for the championship winning team. Comment any missing teams and I will add them.

'/sports/basketball-men/d1':6 'add':22 'championship':12 'comment':15 'david':1 'link':3 'mcgrath':2 'miss':17 'resolv':8 'team':14,18 'win':13 'www.ncaa.com':5 'www.ncaa.com/sports/basketball-men/d1':4 'yes':9

When it comes to self referential, and substanceless questions, I'm apparently becoming king.

THAT'S why I have decided to ask this question:

Will this bet hit 90% yes, or 10% no first?

What this question is asking is: what direction the market will decide to slosh their money around hard enough to win their side first.

Your side may depend on anything that, ahh who cares. Good luck!

'10':34 '90':31 'ahh':68 'anyth':66 'appar':14 'around':53 'ask':24,41 'becom':15 'bet':29,75 'btw':74 'care':70 'christma':78 'come':5 'decid':22,48 'depend':64 'direct':44 'end':76 'enough':55 'first':36,60 'gabe':1,73 'good':71 'hard':54 'hi':2 'hit':30 'king':16 'luck':72 'm':13 'market':46 'may':63 'money':52 'question':11,26,39 'referenti':8 'self':7 'side':59,62 'slosh':50 'substanceless':10 'win':57 'yes':32

I've been studying programming on and off since 2022.

Since December 2023 I use an app to track how much I study. My best monthly performances so far have been:

My average studying time in the tracked period is: 35,38 hours a month.

On days in which I did study my average studying time per day was: 2,21 h.

In the tracked period I studied on 188 out of 351 days.

On my top 3 days with most studying I studied for:

Now I want to shift into a higher gear and study at least 4 hours per day, 6 day per week, as there is potential programming job I might start in January 2025.

If I do according to my plan, I'll surpass 156 hours of additional studying, counting from today. I hope this wager will help motivate me and keep me focused.

I will bet 300 mana on YES option to keep me motivated, and I won't bet more after that. I will not trade it or sell it. If I fail, I'll take the loss.

I'll resolve it no later than January 1st 2025.

I might resolve it earlier if I do 156 hours of programming earlier (as YES), or if it becomes physically or practically impossible to complete this goal (as NO).

'02':41 '156':153,227,260 '188':94 '1st':217 '2':84 '2.20':262 '2022':13 '2023':16,44 '2024':39,49 '2025':142,218 '21':85 '3':102 '3.43':259 '300':176 '35':59 '351':97 '38':60 '4':123 '49':45 '52':36 '53':40 '57':35 '6':127 '93':46 'accord':146 'addit':156 'app':20 'apr':48 'averag':51,78 'background':2 'becom':237 'best':28 'bet':175,189 'complet':243 'count':158 'day':69,71,82,98,103,126,128 'dec':43 'decemb':15 'earlier':223,231 'everi':68 'fail':203 'far':32,258 'focus':172 'gear':118 'goal':245 'h':86,261 'help':166 'higher':117 'hope':162 'hour':37,42,47,61,124,154,228 'imposs':241 'info':3 'januari':141,216 'job':136 'keep':170,182,250 'later':214 'least':122 'll':151,205,210,249 'loss':208 'mana':177 'might':138,220 'month':29,63 'motiv':167,184 'much':24 'option':180 'per':81,125,129 'perform':30 'period':57,90 'physic':238 'plan':149 'potenti':134 'practic':240 'program':8,135,230 'progress':255,256 'resolv':211,221 'sell':199 'sept':38 'shift':114 'sinc':12,14 'start':139 'studi':7,26,52,67,76,79,92,106,108,120,157 'surpass':152 'take':206 'time':53,80 'today':160 'top':101 'track':22,56,89 'trade':196 'updat':252 'use':18 've':5 'wager':164 'want':112 'week':130 'won':187 'yes':179,233 'zlatko':1

The point of this bet is: I will not resolve it. I will not resolve this bet! I have scheduled the resolution of this bet for 11/19/2024, midnight, E.S.T. But since I will not resolve it ever, I honestly don't know how, when or IF, that will happen, so it will be up to Manifold and the bettors to decide.

This is to test the Manifold platform. From time to time, OPs go AWOL: phones break, people die, get bored, commit a crime, flee to third world countries etc. 

Perhaps I'm just a bad OP. Either way, please put in the comment section down below what you think of the problem, what will happen, and what you intend to do about it. Will you try to get Manifold involved, or just accept what happens?

'11/19/2024':30 'accept':137 'awol':78 'bad':99 'bet':8,20,28 'bettor':62 'bore':84 'break':80 'comment':107 'commit':85 'countri':92 'crime':87 'decid':64 'die':82 'e.s.t':32 'either':101 'etc':93 'ever':40 'flee':88 'gabe':1,142 'get':83,132 'go':77 'happen':52,119,139 'hi':2 'honest':42 'intend':123 'involv':134 'know':45 'm':96 'manifold':59,70,133 'midnight':31 'op':76,100 'peopl':3,81 'perhap':94 'phone':79 'platform':71 'pleas':103 'point':5 'problem':116 'put':104 'resolut':25 'resolv':13,18,38 'schedul':23 'section':108 'sinc':34 'test':68 'thank':140 'think':113 'third':90 'time':73,75 'tri':130 'way':102 'world':91

Just to make things clear: if bitcoin surpasses certain value, but its maximum during the next year ends up being closer to even higher value, this will resolve as NO for that value.

For example if the maximum price during 2025 is  $116,000, in that case

'000':45,50,55 '110':49 '116':44 '120':54 '2025':42 'bitcoin':8 'case':48 'certain':10 'clear':6 'closer':22 'end':19 'even':24 'exampl':36 'higher':25 'make':4 'maximum':14,39 'next':17 'price':40 'resolv':29,51,56 'surpass':9 'thing':5 'valu':11,26,34 'year':18 'yes':58 'zlatko':1

This will resolve as yes, if Sabine Hossenfelder releases any new music video from the time of posting this question till the end of 2025, Central European Timezone.

It will resolves as yes, if she releases a music video either on her main YouTube channel or on her channel dedicated to music (

https://www.youtube.com/@SabineHossenfelderMusicVideos

If she releases a music video, and I don't resolve it immediately, please let me know and I'll resolve the question (I can't follow her channels all the time to see if she released something)

'/@sabinehossenfeldermusicvideos':56 '2025':26 'central':27 'channel':46,50,85 'dedic':51 'either':41 'end':24 'european':28 'follow':83 'hossenfeld':9 'immedi':69 'know':73 'let':71 'll':76 'main':44 'music':13,39,53,61 'new':12 'pleas':70 'post':19 'question':21,79 'releas':10,37,59,93 'resolv':4,32,67,77 'sabin':8 'see':90 'someth':94 'till':22 'time':17,88 'timezon':29 'video':14,40,62 'www.youtube.com':55 'www.youtube.com/@sabinehossenfeldermusicvideos':54 'yes':6,34 'youtub':45 'zlatko':1

I will see who resolves this bet first. If it is Manifold, the bet will resolve as 'yes' and if it is me, the bet will resolve as 'no'.

You can bet from 11/16/2024 until 11/18/2024, if not longer. Manifold may resolve the bet from 11/18/2024 onward. If I find this bet unresolved, I will resolve it on or after 12/03/2024.

I don't really know how resolution works on Manifold, so this is me testing the platform since I couldn't find the answers online. 

Concerns: What would happen if after posting a question, a poster suddenly died, broke their phone, lost their password, or just got bored and forgot about it? Who would resolve the bet? 

Any insight you could provide in the comments would be appreciated.

'11/16/2024':35 '11/18/2024':37,47 '12/03/2024':62 'answer':86 'appreci':130 'bet':8,15,26,33,45,53,119 'bore':110 'broke':101 'comment':127 'concern':88 'could':123 'couldn':82 'die':100 'find':51,84 'first':9 'forgot':112 'gabe':1 'got':109 'happen':91 'insight':121 'know':67 'longer':40 'lost':104 'manifold':13,41,72 'may':42 'onlin':87 'onward':48 'password':106 'phone':103 'platform':79 'post':94 'poster':98 'provid':124 'question':96 'realli':66 'resolut':69 'resolv':6,17,28,43,57,117 'see':4 'sinc':80 'sudden':99 'test':77 'thank':131 'unresolv':54 'work':70 'would':90,116,128 'yes':19

After seeing the Tyson/Paul fight, I can't decide which fight would draw millions in crowd

'crowd':18 'curious':2 'decid':11 'draw':15 'fight':7,13 'million':16 'see':4 'tyson/paul':6 'would':14

Resolves 02/01/2025 or sooner, after Trump's first day in office, of his second term. If Trump's first day in office does not occur on 01/20/2025, beting will not resolve until after Trump's first day in office, or 02/01/2025, whichever comes first.

'01/20/2025':28 '02/01/2025':3,42 'bete':29 'come':44 'day':10,21,38 'first':9,20,37,45 'gabe':1 'occur':26 'offic':12,23,40 'resolv':2,32 'second':15 'sooner':5 'term':16 'trump':7,18,35 'whichev':43

https://x.com/teortaxesTex/status/1857487371417104398

My suspicion is mostly based on my understanding of the dynamics in SF, where he might be planning to move into on account of many people being willing to fund it, the rationalist sphere, and my general cynicism regarding human reactions to temptations. I expect him to never pursue a regular day job but, at a minimum, to join the board of advisors as a compensated advisor, probably in some organization related to AI risk and AI regulation; otherwise, he may just officialize his role as a paid consultant. However, there are too many possibilities to enumerate.

Good reasons to be skeptical of this development are voiced (via proxy) by Gwern himself, in the first section of his interview with Dwarkesh Patel where he describes his motives for having remained anonymous thus far: 

Important: this is NOT a market on Gwern's real identity being revealed for the general public, specifically not on him being doxed or compelled to self-dox. If his identity is revealed in any manner except {Gwern's real name} publicly and willingly saying that he is the man known as Gwern Branwen, employed or contractually compensated in some capacity, by a credible counterparty, which confirms it (or the other way around), then the answer is NO.

'/a42key59czq':141 '/teortaxestex/status/1857487371417104398':5 'account':28 'advisor':68,72 'ai':79,82 'anonym':136 'answer':218 'around':215 'base':10 'board':66 'branwen':196 'capac':203 'compel':166 'compens':71,200 'confirm':209 'consult':94 'contractu':199 'counterparti':207 'credibl':206 'cynic':43 'day':57 'describ':130 'develop':110 'dox':164,170 'dwarkesh':126 'dynam':16 'employ':197 'enumer':102 'except':179 'expect':50 'far':138 'first':120 'fund':35 'general':42,157 'good':103 'gwern':116,149,180,195 'howev':95 'human':45 'ident':152,173 'import':142 'interview':124 'job':58 'join':64 'known':193 'man':192 'mani':30,99 'manner':178 'market':147 'may':86 'might':21 'minimum':62 'most':9 'motiv':132 'move':25 'name':183 'never':53 'offici':88 'organ':76 'otherwis':84 'paid':93 'patel':127 'peopl':31 'plan':23 'possibl':100 'probabl':73 'proxi':114 'public':158,184 'pursu':54 'rationalist':38 'reaction':46 'real':151,182 'reason':104 'regard':44 'regul':83 'regular':56 'relat':77 'remain':135 'reveal':154,175 'risk':80 'role':90 'say':187 'section':121 'self':169 'self-dox':168 'sf':18 'skeptic':107 'specif':159 'sphere':39 'suspicion':7 'temptat':48 'teortax':1 'tex':2 'thus':137 'understand':13 'via':113 'voic':112 'way':214 'will':33,186 'x.com':4 'x.com/teortaxestex/status/1857487371417104398':3 'youtu.be':140 'youtu.be/a42key59czq':139

NO -> The fight does not take place or Fury wins the fight or it’s a draw

'dello':2 'draw':25 'fight':8,11,20 'furi':17 'mauro':1 'place':15 'storto':3 'take':14 'usyk':5 'win':6,18 'yes':4

Brazil is currently debating a comprehensive AI law aimed at regulating the development and application of artificial intelligence technologies. The proposed law has sparked discussions on innovation, privacy, and ethical considerations, with potential impacts on various sectors. This prediction assesses the likelihood of the Brazilian Senate passing the law by the end of 2025.

'2025':55 'ai':8 'aim':10 'applic':16 'artifici':18 'assess':41 'brazil':2 'brazilian':46 'bucklummingan':1 'comprehens':7 'consider':32 'current':4 'debat':5 'develop':14 'discuss':26 'end':53 'ethic':31 'impact':35 'innov':28 'intellig':19 'law':9,23,50 'likelihood':43 'pass':48 'potenti':34 'predict':40 'privaci':29 'propos':22 'regul':12 'sector':38 'senat':47 'spark':25 'technolog':20 'various':37

A brand new electric SUV (500 mile range)

A more luxurious albeit second hand sedan

a quick survey to informally evaluate car buyers intentions

'bruno':1 'buyer':13 'camargo':5 'car':12 'de':4 'evalu':11 'inform':10 'intent':14 'quick':7 'r':2 'survey':8

老林：我与群友@金猫非猫 立下赌约，此赌约从我回国后入职起生效，如果我回国后一年内（包括一年）向@金猫非猫 承认我后悔回国了，则我向他支付人民币壹万元整，如果一年后我在群内明确表示没有后悔，则他向我支付壹万元人名币整

I believe Joe doesn't like the optics of pardoning his own son if he even can and is not sure if Trump would do it. So he will step down giving Kamala the glory of first woman of color president and his son gets pardoned in the process.

'alexand':1 'believ':4 'color':42 'doesn':6 'even':18 'first':39 'get':47 'give':34 'glori':37 'joe':5 'kamala':35 'like':8 'newnam':2 'optic':10 'pardon':12,48 'presid':43 'process':51 'son':15,46 'step':32 'sure':23 'trump':25 'woman':40 'would':26

Will there be a trump assassination attempt before 2026. It must be covered by a creditable source. The last one does not count.

'2026':11 'assassin':8 'attempt':9 'bdh':1 'count':25 'cover':15 'credit':18 'fc':2 'last':21 'must':13 'one':22 'sourc':19 'trump':7

Resolves "Yes" if Trump adds more than $100 million in military supplies to Israel, on top of existing agreements, signed into law by the end of April 2025.  Supplies must be military in nature, including weapons, vehicles, fuel, but not supplies which are necessary for life like food and water.

'100':10 '2025':30 'adam':1 'add':7 'agreement':21 'april':29 'end':27 'exist':20 'food':50 'frank':2 'fuel':40 'includ':37 'israel':16 'law':24 'life':48 'like':49 'militari':13,34 'million':11 'must':32 'natur':36 'necessari':46 'resolv':3 'sign':22 'suppli':14,31,43 'top':18 'trump':6 'vehicl':39 'water':52 'weapon':38 'yes':4

When Trump becomes President, Republicans will control all branches of government and both houses of Congress.  The only thing a unified Republican Party couldn't do, is pass things which require a super-majority, constitutional amendments, or similar legal action that requires unusual kinds of cooperation.  

Will they cut spending immediately, such that the debt will hold constant or decrease?  

This question resolves "Yes" if the Debt to the Penny data stream, 

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny

reports that the total public debt outstanding on April 21st of 2025, minus the same measurement on January 21st 2025, is equal to or lower than $1 million.  (I.e. "Yes" if the debt does not grow by more than $1 million in the first three months of the Trump administration.)

'/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny':78 '1':105,118 '2025':90,98 '21st':88,97 'action':43 'adam':1 'administr':128 'amend':39 'april':87 'becom':5 'branch':11 'congress':18 'constant':61 'constitut':38 'control':9 'cooper':49 'couldn':26 'cut':52 'data':74 'debt':58,70,84,111 'decreas':63 'equal':100 'first':122 'fiscaldata.treasury.gov':77 'fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny':76 'frank':2 'govern':13 'grow':114 'hold':60 'hous':16 'i.e':107 'immedi':54 'januari':96 'kind':47 'legal':42 'lower':103 'major':37 'measur':94 'million':106,119 'minus':91 'month':124 'outstand':85 'parti':25 'pass':30 'penni':73 'presid':6 'public':83 'question':65 'report':79 'republican':7,24 'requir':33,45 'resolv':66 'similar':41 'spend':53 'stream':75 'super':36 'super-major':35 'thing':21,31 'three':123 'total':82 'trump':4,127 'unifi':23 'unusu':46 'yes':67,108

Recently, rumors have appeared on the  /r/JPL subreddit indicating the possibility of layoffs of 250-400 employees on 11/13 or 11/14. Interestingly, users who claim to have insider information have DISAGREED; some have said the layoffs are happening and others have said they are not. This market is a fun way to speculate and blow off a little steam at a scary time.

The market will resolve to yes if a layoff triggering the 

 WARN Act occurs (not “is announced”) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory from 11/10/24-11/16/24, and to no otherwise. [EDIT: added “California” to disambiguate]

'-400':18 '/r/jpl':9 '11/10/24-11/16/24':90 '11/13':21 '11/14':23 '250':17 'act':79 'ad':96 'announc':83 'anonym':1 'appear':6 'blow':57 'california':77,97 'claim':27 'disagre':33 'disambigu':99 'edit':95 'employe':19 'fun':52 'happen':40 'indic':11 'inform':31 'insid':30 'interest':24 'jet':86 'jpler':2 'laboratori':88 'layoff':15,38,74 'littl':60 'market':49,67 'occur':80 'other':42 'otherwis':94 'possibl':13 'propuls':87 'recent':3 'resolv':69 'rumor':4 'said':36,44 'scari':64 'specul':55 'steam':61 'subreddit':10 'time':65 'trigger':75 'user':25 'warn':78 'way':53 'yes':71

"December 2023 [...] with an average surface air temperature of 13.51°C ..." - 

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-december-2023

This question resolves YES if Copernicus publishes an average surface air temperature for December 2024 which is 13.52 C or higher.  No consideration of further decimal places will be considered.

I'm not sure when the report will be published on their website, so I'll set the close date to one week after the first day of January 2025.  

'/surface-air-temperature-december-2023':16 '13.51':12 '13.52':34 '2023':4 '2024':31 '2025':76 'adam':1 'air':9,27 'averag':7,25 'c':13,35 'climate.copernicus.eu':15 'climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-december-2023':14 'close':65 'consid':46 'consider':39 'copernicus':22 'date':66 'day':73 'decemb':3,30 'decim':42 'first':72 'frank':2 'higher':37 'januari':75 'll':62 'm':48 'one':68 'place':43 'publish':23,56 'question':18 'report':53 'resolv':19 'set':63 'sure':50 'surfac':8,26 'temperatur':10,28 'websit':59 'week':69 'yes':20

The will resolve yes if the Jake Paul and Mike Tyson does not throw at least one punch at each other in a boxing ring on the 15th of November, 2024. 

'15th':30 '2024':33 'box':26 'jake':9 'least':18 'macdonald':2 'mike':12 'novemb':32 'one':19 'paul':10 'pearson':1 'punch':20 'resolv':5 'ring':27 'throw':16 'tyson':13 'yes':6

The person I think will be Time Magazine’s Person of the year will be: Chris Sanders, who had a successful year thanks to The Wild Robot breaking box office records.

'box':31 'break':30 'chris':18 'cj':1 'magazin':10 'miller':2 'offic':32 'person':4,12 'record':33 'robot':29 'sander':19 'success':23 'thank':25 'think':6 'time':9 'wild':28 'year':15,24

Questions by new users