na pewno's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.36
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when na pewno bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
- Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg officialy announce they're having a fight by January 2024?NOṀ120
- Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy)NOṀ106
- Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy)NOṀ100
50%
- Will twitter user @andrewmccalip achieve the Meissner effect in LK-99 by end of August?NOṀ500
- Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy)NOṀ300
- Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy)NOṀ200
60%
- Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy)NOṀ400
- Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy)NOṀ300
- Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy)NOṀ300
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%