mukimame addict's calibration
Grade: F, Score: -12.07
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when mukimame addict bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
- Will a majority of participants in this market choose Yes?NOṀ50
- At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?YESṀ15
- Will I personally find GPT-4 to be useful for something that I didn't find GPT-3 (or ChatGPT) useful for?YESṀ1
90%
- Will I be on Lex Fridman's podcast in 2023?YESṀ1
- What % of Manifold users think it's acceptable for me to bet in my college application markets before I receive a decision from that college?YESṀ1
- Will the effective altruism movement suffer from serious, high-profile damage to its reputation within the next year (by May 18 2023)?YESṀ1
97%