Will I get my laptop back?
resolved Sep 24

Resolves to Yes if I get my laptop with the data intact, or, at least, the SSDs from it.

Last night, my laptop was stolen from a house in London. (I’ll split $1500+ bounty between people suggesting ideas that lead to me recovering the laptop, if it's recovered.)

The laptop’s primary disk was encrypted with VeraCrypt, so it should be impossible to turn on.

By the end of the day:

- The police basically didn’t do anything useful.

- From an ISP, we know that it happened around (possibly after?) 10:54pm.

- I couldn’t get hands on any camera footage, although it likely existed. Owner of one car with a camera pointing straight at the door gave me his email but didn't send anything. The camera ran out of battery at around 11-11:30pm, IIRC.

- Talked to a couple of homeless people in a nearby area, saying I’m happy to give a reward to however returns the laptop. One asked around (including a couple of people “who buy stuff” and later told me that “they can’t get in there [can’t turn on the laptop?], can’t they? Because of a password/key thing”. I confirmed this. She told me that they can’t sell it because of it.

At that point, I became >50% certain that she got in contact with people who have the laptop: the laptop is encrypted and asks for a password before launching Windows.

This happened at around 4:40pm. She told me to meet at 6pm (and that she’s going to buy some weed in the market). I got slightly optimistic. At 6pm, no one showed up (except for me and a housemate). I lost some of the optimism.

This would’ve been a great story to tell if it ended in a laptop recovery. It hasn’t, so instead it’s kinda sad.

I’ve put a couple of posters about a reward for the laptop, with my contact info, but I’m not optimistic.

(Ideas and thoughts are welcome. Please don't manipulate this market in ways that reduce the probability of me getting my laptop back. I'm betting on No to encourage people to bet Yes and be incentivised to help me)

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Will I be in the top 10 shy brownies?
Logaems avatarParvati Jain
63% chance
Can I save my plant’s broken branch? (See photos)
Reality avatarSierra
74% chance
Will I practice driving?
alleycat avataralleycat
38% chance
Will I get Fu Xuan?
KyleWan avatarHazepski
9% chance
Will I join the military?
BenjaminIkuta avatarBenjamin Ikuta
42% chance
Will I see another giant house spider in my apartment by Halloween?
evergreenemily avatarevergreen
82% chance
Will I go to hell when I die?
IsaacKing avatarIsaac King
35% chance
Will I get Arlecchino?
ithildulin avatarAmelia
70% chance
Will I successfully go mushroom hunting this year?
Stralor avatarPat Scott🩴
71% chance
Will I be happy that I bought this home, at the end of 2030 (in 7 years). Ṁ Rewards for Betting and Comments!
Will I decide to go no contact with any "core" family member by EoY?
Will [my secret project] succeed, by my subjective estimate?
NicholasKross avatarNicholas Kross
29% chance
Will I get mirrored?
astyerche avatarpower creep
72% chance
Will I ever be a proofnik?
Wobbles avatarWobbles
14% chance
Will i gamble again?
Base avatarBase
71% chance
Will I feel fight-or-flight type fear because of tech swag I wear?
agentydragon avatarRai
37% chance
Will I fuck around and find out?
TatianaSurver avatarTatiana Surver
80% chance
Will I solo or draw in my second diplomacy game ever?
Will I get to Ruby Palace?
HannahFox avatarHannah Fox
84% chance
If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?
IsaacKing avatarIsaac King
46% chance

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:
ms avatar
Mikhail Saminpredicted NO

I’m confident that I won’t get it back

ms avatar
Mikhail Saminpredicted NO

Got a call from the police detective that they couldn’t triangulate the router. Apparently they haven’t even tried getting the CCTV footage

4 replies
ms avatar
Mikhail Saminpredicted NO

(And that they’re closing the case)

zzlk avatar
ayylmaopredicted YES

@ms I think it's reasonable to close the market now that they closed the case. I have heard of several stories though of people getting their stuff back much later, usually when someone in possession down the line of it gets themselves arrested.

ms avatar
Mikhail Saminbought Ṁ40,000 of NO

@zzlk I wouldn’t expect the data to be intact

zzlk avatar
ayylmaopredicted YES

@ms Oh, ic, yeah that seems basically impossible now.

ms avatar
Mikhail Saminpredicted NO

Should I resolve the market on Sep 26?

1 reply
cloudprism avatar
Hayden Jackson

@ms Sorry you didn't get your laptop back yet! I lost a laptop too, last year. What's your plan B?

ms avatar
Mikhail Saminpredicted NO

No updates from the police; in a couple of days, the CCTV footage might get deleted, if they haven’t retrieved it. I’m not hopeful

ms avatar
Mikhail Saminbought Ṁ100 of NO

No updates; seems unlikely

ms avatar
Mikhail Saminbought Ṁ100 of NO

People who buy Yes, where’s your hope coming from? Any ideas for what I might do?

A reminder that if the data on the laptop is not intact, this resolves to No even if I get it back.

The thieves would probably sell the laptop by parts, if they haven’t already done so.

I might leave the UK in a couple of days for EAGxBerlin.

ms avatar
Mikhail Saminpredicted NO

@cloudprism Could’ve been us, but we didn’t have AirTags and even when we found a location, the police were too slow to arrive

ms avatar
Mikhail Saminbought Ṁ120 of NO

After DMing the police on Twitter, yesterday, I got a call from the detective who was finally assigned to the case. She told me she’ll try looking for the CCTV footage next week

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Youngpredicted NO

@ms I am glad you're okay

ms avatar
Mikhail Saminpredicted YES

Will make an update later

ms avatar
Mikhail Saminpredicted NO

An update from the ISP: apparently, the router has last been connected at 23:48 on August 26; but then the SIM card (I just learned the router was a 5G wifi router) was connected again on August 27 at 19:00. It might be possible to get the approximate location from the cell towers?

ms avatar
Mikhail Saminsold Ṁ8 of NO

Also update: I talked to a housemate who’s been absent for a couple of days and offline. The thieves have stolen her bike, an Apple keyboard, an Oura ring charger, and some kind of a tv thing that was near the wifi router.

This means the thief has probably been quite visible. Will update the police tomorrow (during the working hours)

ms avatar
Mikhail Saminpredicted NO

I talked to the homeless lady again. She told me she meant that generally, if “they” can’t get into the laptops, they have to sell them by parts.

Now my impression is that either I was wrong and she wasn’t actually in contact with someone who knows where the laptop is, or she’s now lying for some reason

ms avatar
Mikhail Saminpredicted NO

I was pointed at dodgy people “on the bench”, they told me if they get the laptop they’ll call me

ms avatar
Mikhail Saminpredicted NO

the camera pointing at the door doesn’t have the recording now :( I should’ve acted faster

ms avatar
Mikhail Saminpredicted NO

Are private investigators a thing in the UK? Can I hire them to help recover the laptop?

1 reply
NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young

@ms I think they are but I've never heard of doing that

ms avatar
Mikhail Saminpredicted NO

Got M$250 for someone signing up on Manifold because of this question, added to the No bets to encourage people to buy Yes and help me