Will I be at Manifest?
20
300
370
resolved Sep 22
Resolved
YES

I bought the tickets to Manifest. I'm currently in London. I might fly to the US for Manifest, maybe something else in the Bay, and maybe also DC. But I'm not sure it makes sense to.

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predicted YES

In a Lyft to Manifest!

predicted NO

@ms someone please hijack this man's Lyft, my 15 mana is in danger!

predicted YES

But… did they lose my luggage?

predicted YES

they didn’t!

If no one stabs me on the BART, should be good

predicted YES

For the most per of the flight, a guy sitting next to me has been occasionally coughing and looked somewhat ill; I had been wearing a mask, but there’s some probability I’ll get covid or something and won’t be at Manifest

predicted YES

Got through the border control, waiting for the luggage

I’m in an airplane to SF!

predicted NO

@ms someone please hijack this man's airplane, my 10 mana is in danger!

bought Ṁ5 of NO

@CodeandSolder new idea: someone please cancel this man's visa (or passport) before he is able to enter the US!

(on a more serious note, i bought 5 mana more worth of NO shares to account for potential border issues)

bought Ṁ10,000 of YES

@42irrationalist 😅

Hopefully they ban manifold accounts for swatting style stuff

predicted NO

@ms Congratulations on making to it! I hope you'll have a great time there!

sold Ṁ5 of NO

99% seems too high, stuff can come up in London

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I spent $600 on a plane ticket from London to SF, haven't yet booked the housing

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Feel free to manipulate the market by persuading me one way or the other

predicted YES

@ms
- You've bought a ticket, so your interest is somewhat high.
- You're an EA, so you can meet up with all the EA people/orgs before/after so your flight wouldn't just be for the conference.

  • This is the first manifold conference. It will likely be full of OGs and slightly disorganized enough to be fun in a way that later conferences won't be able to capture.

  • Networking: Meeting new people can potentially be life changing (new partners, job references, key ideas, etc.). Seeing how this is in the US and not the UK it will likely be a different group of people than you are normally around but in an adjacent space that you are interested in.

And in case you missed it, there is more of a schedule now: https://news.manifold.markets/p/last-chance-get-tickets-to-manifest