Conditional on an account-linked Manifold Discord bot that allows betting and market creation being added to the MM Discord, will at least 5 users use this bot on June 1st, 2022?
83%
chance
Jun 1
M$43 bet
This is a potential Manifold Markets feature I or somebody else might work on. It could use a not-currently-existing API for market operations to provide a text-based interface for Discord users to create markets (e.g. `!manifold create "Will the sun rise tomorrow?" 99% M$50`) and betting on markets (e.g. `!manifold bet yes M$20`). It could require you to link your Discord and Manifold accounts via a manual step in order to be able to use it. If a bot fitting this description is created and added to the MM Discord prior to June 1st, this market resolves YES if at least 5 different users use it to create markets or place bets on that day, and NO if less than 5 different users do so. If nobody creates a bot like this on the MM Discord, then this market resolves N/A.