Juan Pablo's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.89
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Juan Pablo bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- Will the Wagner group stop operating in Ukraine by the end of Jul 2023?YESṀ1,000
- Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?YESṀ1,000
- Will Ukraine recapture the city of Kherson by the end of 2022?YESṀ900
97%