Grade: B-, Score: -2.53
Probability after bet
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when miscatulated bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
3 largest bets for each bucket
- Will the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives be elected on the tenth ballot?NOṀ10
- Will the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives be elected on the eighth ballot?NOṀ10
- Will the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives be elected on the ninth ballot?NOṀ10
- I've baked a cake using a subset of the given ingredients (read description). Resolves YES if someone guesses which in the comments.YESṀ100
- Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?NOṀ100
- Personal Pentesting: Will anyone on Manifold find out private information about me by the end of 2023?YESṀ100