There is a massive manhunt underway in Russia for those who were responsible for the Moscow terrorist attack (whoever they may be). If credible Western media sources report that ALL of the terrorists directly involved in the attack (the shooters themselves) have been taken into custody or killed within 72 hours of this market being created, resolves YES. If there no news regarding the status of all the terrorists within 3 days, resolves NO.
In case of a dispute (for example: Russia claims they killed all the terrorists, but Western sources haven't seen evidence it's true and ISIS denies it), the market close date may be extended beyond 3 days until clarity on the situation is established, but any actions taken outside of those 3 days won't count. So for example if Russia claims they captured the terrorists on day 2, but Western media only confirms it on day 5 (but confirms it happened on day 2), still resolves YES.
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Resolving YES. I haven't noticed any significant reporting in Western media doubting that the four individuals detained by Russia within 72 hours were the same individuals who committed the shooting. In fact, all evidence points to them being the same. The shooters captured by Russians filming match the images and videos posted by ISIS, which in turn match the videos of the shooters in court. Take for example this NYT article which outlines the events well: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/28/world/europe/russia-concert-attack-security-failures.html?unlocked_article_code=1.gE0.xeHd.J67DWNyryEhF&smid=tw-share. Among other evidence it goes over, one piece I hadn't heard before states that the NYTimes verified one of the shooters Russia captured was pictured at the concert hall in the weeks before the attack surveying the place, which is quite compelling.
The Insider, among others, published analysis of evidence, very convincingly showing that the people caught are indeed the ones who did it https://theins.ru/en/news/270220
@intiluha What exactly is the evidence, besides their confessions?
To me it seems very likely that Russia grabbed random people off the street and beat them up until they confessed.
The Insider article doesn't have much that would change my mind about that. In fact, they even admit that the men they captured do not match the APB that was sent out.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Confessions are obviously given under torture, so we can't count them as evidence.
In the article they say "The clothes of the terrorist in the video match those of the individuals apprehended on suspicion of perpetrating the attack", accompanied by photos proving the point. That's the biggest evidence to me. You can also check CIT analysis here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NX2WPi3N5g at 16:33, although it's only in Russian afaik
"Western sources"?
"Western sources haven't seen evidence" -- is there precedent for Russia providing 'western sources' with evidence for similar situations?
@gpt_news_headlines I think a reasonable comparable might be the rogue General who perished in the plane accident. 'Western sources' couldn't really confirm or deny what happened with any reasonable level of credibility.
@gpt_news_headlines that was just to protect against cases where Russia may come out of nowhere and claim the terrorists are dead without any proof. I don't expect that to happen in this case, their faces are already highly publicized and from what I've seen there's video evidence of some or all of them being caught already. I use the totality of the evidence when i make my decision including open source intelligence. If anyone has sources they wish to share, feel free to add them here.
@mint AFAIK there are no videos of the attack where the attackers' faces are captured with a high resolution. Moreover, on the videos that ISIS released the faces are intentionally blurred.
I think there's some although small possibility that they caught people who were paid to take the blame or something.
@gpt_news_headlines I'm going to do a thorough investigation when I have time later, but I'll say this for now. There is always the outside chance of a massive conspiracy, but from what I've seen the videos released by ISIS, the videos of the shooters, and the videos of the people captured look close enough (especially the clothes they are wearing). Unless the theory of a cover up gets mainstream coverage in western media, I probably won't consider that possibility.