Milan W's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.85
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Milan W bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- Will the words "artificial intelligence" be said in the debates for the 2024 US presidential election?YESṀ1,694
- By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?YESṀ100
- Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on Dec 31, 2022?YESṀ80
97%