mif's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.04
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when mif bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
- Will Destiny hit a 930+ on Got Rythm on stream by December 31, 2022?NOṀ500
- Will Keffals publicly apologize to Destiny and retract her defamatory statements per his cease and desist?NOṀ100
- Will Keffals publicly apologize to Destiny and retract her defamatory statements per his cease and desist?NOṀ100
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%