A proof has been suggested on Quora for "the nth terms of convergence of the Collatz map". (I am restarting this market as multiple choice, now Manifold has that option.)
There are two parts to the proof:
A general statement of the theorem, https://qr.ae/pyD8Nk, and an inductive proof of that theorem, https://qr.ae/pKRv1A.
The ambiguity is whether or not proving convergence of the nth terms is the same as proving all sequence Ns converge on 1.
A third, generalized, proof may be published on Quora.
If you want to learn about the conjecture and its place in contemporary mathematics, watch the Veritasium video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/094y1Z2wpJg
About the prize: https://mathprize.net/posts/collatz-conjecture/
Related questions
@TimothyJohnson5c16 the proof is obviously wrong but we're betting on the market creator's resolution 😅
@MichaelMRoss yep, some detailed criteria would be nice, especially for the "yes, but no prize" and "yes but controversy" options.
@EvanDaniel These things never go exactly according to plan. Look up the history of Andrew Wiles proof of Fermat's Last Theorem. As for the prize, look at the fine-print in order to win.
If I was clairvoyant, I wouldn't be asking the question!