Will just paying people to lose weight be more effective than paying people to exercise and join, e.g., weightwatchers?
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resolved Mar 21
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YES
The question resolves to yes if the 'outcome based' group has a greater weight proportion with >5% loss at six months than the 'goal-directed group' and no if the 'goal-directed group' had a greater loss. Outcome-based group: can earn up to $750 by losing weight over 6 months. Goal-directed group: can earn up to $750 by wearing a Fitbit and doing exercise, joining and participating in weight watchers etc over 6 months. If the difference is not statistically significant, resolves to NA. Sample: 668 obese adults, randomised to 3 groups (control group excluded from this question). Trial details: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03157713
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Results here: "At 6 months, the adjusted proportion of patients who lost at least 5% of baseline weight was 22.1% in the resources-only group, 39.0% in the goal-directed group, and 49.1% in the outcome-based incentive group (difference, 10.08 percentage points [95% CI, 1.31-18.85] for outcome based vs goal directed; difference, 27.03 percentage points [95% CI, 18.20-35.86] and 16.95 percentage points [95% CI, 8.18-25.72] for outcome based or goal directed vs resources only, respectively). However, mean percentage of weight loss was similar in the incentive arms."

Paying per kilo > paying per exercise. Thanks for betting people.

bought Ṁ1 of NO
I expect there to be almost no long-term differences between the two groups.

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