85
22k
resolved Mar 4
Resolved
YES
Direct strike against Iranian proxy groups
Resolved
YES
Sanctions
Resolved
NO
No response
Resolved
NO
Direct strike against Iran
Resolved
NO
Killing a senior military official

The action must be explicitly in response to the death of the 3 US troops.

This market will close 12:00 AM EST March 1st.

Resolution specifics:

  • Direct strike against Iran - any attack within Iran's borders against a government/Iranian military facility.

  • Direct strike against Iranian proxy groups - any attack anywhere on Houthis/Hezbollah/any proxy affiliate of Iran or a group that Iran has provided support for

  • Killing a senior military official - the assassination of an Iranian military official anywhere

  • Sanctions - economic/geopolitical restrictions imposed

  • No response - none of the above

For all markets, the action must be directly in response to the death of US troops in Jordan.

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@mich You still need to resolve the remaining two answers to NO. Or are there any uncertainties left?

@mich resolves no to the open ones

Killing a senior military official

Does this have to be an Iranian official? Or does a leader of a proxy group count.

@Arky Must be an Iranian official.

Unfortunately this isn't covered by the answers.

"Biden has approved plans for multiday strikes in Iraq and Syria against multiple targets, including Iranian personnel and facilities, according to U.S. officials. But the response, expected to begin as soon as this weekend, will be “tiered,” mixing military actions with other steps that can be adjusted to signal that Washington doesn’t seek further escalation."

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/shadow-war-with-iran-risks-turning-into-a-direct-conflict-6b8eddd9

Sanctions

Does sanctions on Iraqis count, or does it have to be sanctions on Iranians?

Why not just decapitate the entire Iranian regime with simultaneous cruise missiles for all the important government buildings and all the private residences of all the senior officials? Serious question

@JonathanRay The ruling class in Iran is like 10000 people or smth.

@JonathanRay Out of the frying pan and into the fire

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