metachirality's calibration
Grade: D, Score: -8.93
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when metachirality bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
60%
- Will Manifold Markets be mentioned on the Wikipedia page about prediction markets at the end of February 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Manifold Markets be mentioned on the Wikipedia page about prediction markets at the end of February 2023?YESṀ100
- Will a Texas judge grant an injunction to temporarily and completely block the abortion pill mifepristone?YESṀ50
70%
- Will Manifold Markets be mentioned on the Wikipedia page about prediction markets at the end of February 2023?YESṀ80
- Will the responder one-box in this Transparent Newcomb's Paradox?YESṀ50
- Will Manifold Markets be mentioned on the Wikipedia page about prediction markets at the end of February 2023?YESṀ50
80%
90%