Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?
resolved Aug 28

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once in 2023 (ET timezone). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account:

Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

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bought Ṁ5 of NO

I mean they aren't called tweets anymore........

predicted YES

@KeegabQcosta I hope we don't interpret renaming the site to be getting rid of tweets. My view is, he had a series of tweets before and the question is about whether he will continue it. Regardless of what they're called.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

to the "yes" victims: Is there a certain date where it actually doesn't seem probably that he's going to tweet? maybe 3 or 4 months from now? or are you going to ride this till Dec. 31.? What day to start reevaluating and start selling off your position?

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING if DWAC acquires Truth and he doesn't tweet, I would start to reconsider my positions a bit. That's the most important thing that could feasibly happen this year.


I believe DWAC has until September 27th 2023 to bring Truth Social public or risk liquidation based on regulations.
SPACs have a specific time frame in which they need to merge with another company and close a deal. This time frame is usually 18 to 24 months. If a SPAC cannot merge during the allotted time, then it liquidates and all funds are returned to investors.
I think if DWAC and Truth can not do a deal by September, than Trump goes back to Twitter around September/October, maybe sooner. I doubt he joins Threads and probably doesn't have an account on BlueSky.

predicted NO

@SirCryptomind would you say it's a high chance for it go public? what percentage do you give it?
I still think threads is a possibility just due to him having an instagram and he does post on instagram too (last upload was like 6 h ago.)

predicted YES


My opinion is maybe like 25%, since If they do go public they will have to pay an $18 million civil penalty fee to the SEC to settle Fraud charges.

SPACs can get around the 18-24 month regulation but I am not 100% familiar with how that works. I believe the furthest the deadline can be extended is January 1st 2025.

Threads is already dying from what I have been reading, I don't use Instagram so I totally forgot Trump uses that.

predicted NO

@SirCryptomind oh okay. he also posts on facebook too

predicted NO

Did he tweet yet? or any potential dates when he will?

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING no, but to copy my discussion/reasoning for buying YES on a duplicate market. I have bought a bunch on all different versions of this market and its a bit sad the discussion can't easily form in one place

I’m buying yes because:

  1. The SPAC that is taking truth social public (DWAC) is trading at lows and is failing to meet basic reporting obligations. Trumps multi-billion dollar cash out through truth is fading and the only way to ensure its success is if he can force people to be interested in what he has to say again (by becoming president)

  2. Truth has about 1/1000 of twitters users. Trump cannot win the presidency without tweeting. He couldn’t beat Biden last time when Twitter was against him, now Twitter is practically built for him and he’s neglecting it? It won’t last.

  3. Trump finally has stated competition in desantis. not because he was on Twitter but because he announced officially.

  4. Trump is competing for mainstream news space unsuccessfully, and his most effective tool when he was iced out in 2025/16 was Twitter. Even when Twitter was against him. (CNN did their thing and got a lot of backlash for handing trump favourable airtime.)

  5. His last tweets are related to an event most Americans (including many republicans) see as an overwhelmingly negative thing. It’s also a reminder for Fox/Murdoch that he cost them 100s of millions

Pressure is mounting on Trump. His window to take truth public is ending, and they are behind schedule (the contract has several timelines set to expire in June/July- including his 6hour post exclusivity)

Everything is building towards an eventual comeback. Trump will make billions if he is elected president, so that’s where his incentives are.

I’ll keep buying YES long after this DeSantis Twitter nonsense lol. It’s just more fuel on the already raging fire.

2023 still has a looong time left.

predicted YES

"Mr. Trump’s aides have signaled for months that he plans to return to Twitter sooner rather than later."

predicted YES

@KevinBurke he also postsed a video on truth social of his avatar joining a twitter space

bought Ṁ100 of NO
predicted YES

@KevinBurke Nah I’m good