Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?
closes Dec 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once in 2023 (ET timezone). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump.

Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

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higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGbought Ṁ30 of YES

to the "yes" victims: Is there a certain date where it actually doesn't seem probably that he's going to tweet? maybe 3 or 4 months from now? or are you going to ride this till Dec. 31.? What day to start reevaluating and start selling off your position?

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting YES at 58%

@higherLEVELING if DWAC acquires Truth and he doesn't tweet, I would start to reconsider my positions a bit. That's the most important thing that could feasibly happen this year.

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGis predicting NO at 60%

Did he tweet yet? or any potential dates when he will?

Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting YES at 60%

@higherLEVELING no, but to copy my discussion/reasoning for buying YES on a duplicate market. I have bought a bunch on all different versions of this market and its a bit sad the discussion can't easily form in one place

I’m buying yes because:

  1. The SPAC that is taking truth social public (DWAC) is trading at lows and is failing to meet basic reporting obligations. Trumps multi-billion dollar cash out through truth is fading and the only way to ensure its success is if he can force people to be interested in what he has to say again (by becoming president)

  2. Truth has about 1/1000 of twitters users. Trump cannot win the presidency without tweeting. He couldn’t beat Biden last time when Twitter was against him, now Twitter is practically built for him and he’s neglecting it? It won’t last.

  3. Trump finally has stated competition in desantis. not because he was on Twitter but because he announced officially.

  4. Trump is competing for mainstream news space unsuccessfully, and his most effective tool when he was iced out in 2025/16 was Twitter. Even when Twitter was against him. (CNN did their thing and got a lot of backlash for handing trump favourable airtime.)

  5. His last tweets are related to an event most Americans (including many republicans) see as an overwhelmingly negative thing. It’s also a reminder for Fox/Murdoch that he cost them 100s of millions

Pressure is mounting on Trump. His window to take truth public is ending, and they are behind schedule (the contract has several timelines set to expire in June/July- including his 6hour post exclusivity)

Everything is building towards an eventual comeback. Trump will make billions if he is elected president, so that’s where his incentives are.

I’ll keep buying YES long after this DeSantis Twitter nonsense lol. It’s just more fuel on the already raging fire.

2023 still has a looong time left.

KevinBurke avatar
Kevin Burkeis predicting YES at 50%

"Mr. Trump’s aides have signaled for months that he plans to return to Twitter sooner rather than later." https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1661099071468085252

Blomfilter avatar
Blomfilteris predicting YES at 60%

@KevinBurke he also postsed a video on truth social of his avatar joining a twitter space


higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGbought Ṁ100 of NO
KevinBurke avatar
Kevin Burkesold Ṁ5 of YES

Same market, 5% better odds if you are a YES bettor, sell here and buy there.. https://manifold.markets/CP/will-donald-trump-tweet-once-in-202

Will Donald Trump tweet once in 2023?
Will Donald Trump tweet once in 2023?
42% chance. YES = Donald Trump WILL tweet at least once in 2023 NO = Donald Trump will NOT tweet at least once in 2023
Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting YES at 47%

@KevinBurke Nah I’m good

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