Will there be a manalink in the comments with at least one unclaimed Ṁ50 charge at the closing of this market?
25
740
470
resolved Jun 9
Resolved
YES

The comment with the manalink has to be at least 5 minutes old when the market closes for it to count.

The manalink must be valid during the entire time that it stays up, meaning that the creator of the manalink must have enough funds to pay out each charge. If at any point someone is unable to claim a charge from the manalink due to insufficient funds from the creator, that manalink will not count as valid.

People who spam comments to obscure the comment section will be blocked.

The exact hour of closing might change since I need to be free when it happens. If I change the closing time, I'll leave at least 3 hours between the time of change and the new closing time.

Experimental. Feel free to ask for clarifications

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Ha found wazzup. Clever, I feel fairly stupid looking for it for 15 minutes. Congrats @DanMan314, welcome to the club of people who caused an appendix to be added into these market rules.

predicted NO

@dgga Same lol

Resolving as "yes" in 15 minutes unless any substantial counterarguments are made.

@memestiny i had this challenge a while ago where i post an image and there's a manalink in that image, free for all to claim. Would that be valid for such markets as this one?

predicted YES

@memestiny, you around? I messaged you the links on reddit including the last valid link so you can verify.

@DanMan314 Yes, sorry, I wanted to leave some time for discussion and ended up forgetting about resolving

bought Ṁ500 of YES

Market resolves YES. There are 3 valid manalinks in the below comment, all of which had charges remaining at market close.

predicted YES
predicted YES

People are still claiming after market close, so here's the log of claims as even more evidence. Congrats to those who found the second, no one has found the third yet!

predicted NO

Only 'hiya' and 'hi there' were posted in the comment. 'Wazzup' was not. Could you please hover over the '4 minutes ago' to show the exact time?

Thanks for the mana - Although, would that count as obscuring the comment section? mfgU07KU (display text) for example, linked to BbdzgSrx (href), an invalid link.

predicted YES

@XComhghall I can't get any more info to show on hover, but it shouldn't matter it doesn't come down to the seconds anyway.

It's 11:10, it shows as being claimed 8 minutes ago. That's a 2 minute buffer.

predicted YES

@XComhghall Also, wazzup was and is still in the comment. I just verified again to be sure.

predicted NO

@DanMan314 I tried all the hrefs and display text again. Cannot find 'wazzup'. I do however think that I claimed it after market close, i.e., after 10:59, and trust that your screenshot was taken at 11:10.

predicted YES

@XComhghall Ideally I'd use the same trick again in a future market, and I'd rather not lose the 150 mana by posting the link here. If you have a discord and are curious I'll ping you.


Or you can give me a 150 manalink to subsidize and I'll just post the link which you can then verify lol.

@DanMan314 this was cool.

What if i post a manalink but it's hidden inside an image and anyone can decode and claim it? Would it be valid? Steganography

predicted NO

@firstuserhere What was the trick here?

predicted NO

@BenjaminIkuta Hint: All manalinks have 8 characters.

@BenjaminIkuta Since 3/3 charges have been redeemed and the new edition of the market forbids this particular obfuscation; I don't think there is any harm in explaining it anymore.

Here's every https://manifold.markets/link/* url pulled from the source of this page:

A monospace font is all it took to spot the impostor

predicted YES

@dgga, @XComhghall, @BenjaminIkuta Yup, 3 total tricks. I generated random alphanumeric strings to get the fake urls.

  1. 1 link was just randomly in the list. I was sort of expecting this one to get snapped up before market close to bait people into buying more NO.

  2. 1 link was in the list as text, but I overrode the link manually to point to a fake manalink

  3. 1 link was in the text, but I added the character r to the end so the full manalink was still in the comment, but clicking on it without removing the extra character would still be a fake manalink.

I think tricks 1 and 2 would still work in the next market. 3 has been explicitly disallowed. There hasn't been a hard barrier on comment length but I tried to keep my comment short enough that no one could claim it's "spammed", but someone could push that boundary in the next market and require more searching.

predicted YES

And yea, I intentionally chose a valid link that appeared short in variable length font so it wouldn't stand out with an extra character.

@DanMan314 Good job, you beat the market fair and square

Talking of which I have good potential ways to beat the next market within the rules (without being obnoxious as well) but sadly I won't be available at market close. I'm confident enough in them that I would go all in on YES if I was.

predicted YES

@dgga Yea I have some ideas too. Frankly I'm surprised people are still willing to bet no, my probability of a YES resolution even without me participating is probably ~65%, although it depends on much profit an attempt would make. Currently there's only 104 profit on the line, so it's not worth it unless you just care about profits and not net earnings.

predicted YES

@dgga Rats I'm also busy at close time. Sad.

predicted NO

@DanMan314 Very clever! Nice.

predicted NO

@DanMan314 Yes. Memestiny confirmed that techniques 1 and 2 will still be allowed - It would be even better to combine them so that all the fake links also have different display text and href (to which it links).