Will there be a manalink in the comments with at least one unclaimed Ṁ100 charge at the closing of this market?
17
396
330
resolved Jun 17
Resolved
NO

The comment with the manalink has to be at least 2 minutes old when the market closes for it to count.

The manalink must be valid during the entire time that it stays up, meaning that the creator of the manalink must have enough funds to pay out each charge. If at any point someone is unable to claim a charge from the manalink due to insufficient funds from the creator, that manalink will not count as valid.

People who obscure the comment section by spamming will be blocked or have their links rendered invalid.

The link has to be either embedded or written out as a valid URL (or both). Links that are unreasonably obscured do not count. Example 1: if the link is embedded in a small symbol like a period. Example 2: if the entire URL of the manalink is written out, but with added symbols directly connected at the beginning or end of it

(i.e "https://manifold.markets/link/thisistherealurlTHESEAREADDEDSYMBOLS")

The exact hour of closing might change since I need to be free when it happens. If I change the closing to an earlier time, I'll leave at least 3 hours between the time of change and the new closing time. The closing time will not change after (1) a valid manalink has been posted, or (2) the time for posting valid manalinks has passed.

Experimental. Feel free to ask for clarifications.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ71
2Ṁ70
3Ṁ61
4Ṁ28
5Ṁ11
Sort by:
predicted NO

@cloe beat me by 1

predicted NO

lmao salty yes bettoors correctly accounted for first order effects, but not for the zeroth order effect of inertia and laziness. This is a play money market!

predicted NO

@AashiqDheeraj77eb not to mention the expectation of second order link sniping from no bettoooors, which serves as a disincentive to hypothetical link posters

Wow I’m surprised no one went for it. Will there be more of these markets?

Resolving as ”no” in 15 minutes unless any substantial counterarguments are made

Nooooo I was waiting to snipe no and you closed it early

@ShadowyZephyr I let it run out as usual

@memestiny oh what I thought it closed early somehow

How will you measure this? How will you know exactly when a certain manalink "ran out"? There will presumably be a lot of chaos right as this ends, and any manalinks that still had mana to pay out will be emptied very soon after.

@Shelvacu Might need to use API, but hopefully it'll be clear enough.

Are link shorteners allowed?

bought Ṁ5 of YES

there is definitely going to be a manalink
pretty surprising that people are still betting no

posting an image with 20 or more links- it may be impossible to type enough of them to find the relevant link in 2 minutes. Betting no just makes people want to find a way, why do traders do that?

@ChristopherRandles Yeah I don't think the revised rules forbid what Dan did. (Even the simple technique of burying 'hi there' in 15 invalid links worked. I claimed after market close.)

It may not be bad though. I bet M10 down, someone gives me a M100 link. Well, as long as I am (one of) the first to find the hidden link.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Tragedy of the commons social experiment or smth? DGG is way too selfish and trolls too hard (because it’s so funny) for everyone to not be a jerkk. Plus, it’s in the interest of the no-voters to claim it asap anyway. Only hope is that it closes when no one sees or smth.

In the previous market, there was a case where a link displayed the valid link (text), but linked to an invalid link (href). What is your ruling on that? Would that count as 'unreasonably obscured'? Thanks.

@XComhghall Links that are written out without being embedded are valid, just as embedded links that are not written out are.

@memestiny What about a link which is both written out and embedded, but the written out and embedded links are different, and one or both are invalid?

E.g.,

https://manifold.markets/link/valid-link

<a href="https://manifold.markets/link/INVALID-LINK">https://manifold.markets/link/valid-link</a>

https://manifold.markets/link/INVALID-LINK

<a href="https://manifold.markets/link/valid-link">https://manifold.markets/link/INVALID-LINK</a>

Also, your revised rules did not rule out posting a ton of invalid links in which a few valid links are buried. Would you say that if someone posts 100 invalid links, and bury 1 valid link in them, that is still fair game?

@XComhghall The URL or the embedded link has to direct to a valid manalink. If one of them is real, it’s valid.

Posting a lot of links in one comment is valid as long as it doesn’t lag the site somehow, or unreasonably obscure the comment section or link. It’ll depend on a number of factors, so I won’t give a specific limit