I'm attempting to hike the entire 2650 miles of the Pacific Crest Trail, from Mexico to Canada, starting on May 11. How far will I make it, in miles, before finishing or quitting?

Some technicalities:

- It is likely I will skip a non-zero number of miles, due to things like part of the trail being closed for fires, or hiking an alternate path, in order to reach a place I can resupply. For the purposes of this market, I will have made it as far as I was able to go without quitting or skipping more than 5% or 50 miles (whichever is greater)
- Any hiking I do after December 31, 2024 or after I'm no longer allowed to be hiking on the trail (e.g. if H5N1 shuts everything down) does not count.
- I will not trade on this market, after betting on myself finishing the entire thing (2650 miles).

Possibly useful information:
- I have lots of backpacking experience (~200 nights, maybe?) in a wide variety of environments (Deserts, Rockies, PNW)
- I'm in reasonably good physical condition. I used to be a competitive cyclist, and in my training hikes I've been completing >15 miles, with >3000 feet of elevation gain in <5 hours, with a pack of similar weight to what I'll be carrying on the trail.
- My primary care doctor is enthusiastic for me to be doing this
- I've never hiked the PCT or any other super long trail
- I have spent less time preparing, both physically and logistically, than the typical thru hiker
- I'm not super motivated to finish, but I sometimes get pretty stubborn about finishing things even when I should probably quit (for example, my 8.5-year PhD)
- My best guesses for why I would stop without finishing are boredom, minor injuries (e.g. knee/foot pain that doesn't go away), or feeling too much urgency about getting back to working on x-risk reduction to be gone for 4-6 months.
- Here's a survey with some information to help you think about base rates: https://www.halfwayanywhere.com/trails/pacific-crest-trail/pct-hiker-survey-2022/

I will try to answer questions before I leave, but I won't be able to do much while on the trail. I'll also try to give occasional updates on my progress.