Rick's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.37
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Rick bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
- If I publish a LessWrong post critiquing part of Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines, will it receive over 50 karma within 72 hours?YESṀ50
- Will AI Impacts use Manifold Markets to plan another social event by the end of 2022?YESṀ40
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)NOṀ20
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?YESṀ1,000
- Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?YESṀ1,000
- Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?YESṀ500
95%
97%