Will there be a Russian - American prisoner swap in 2024? ๐ท๐บ๐บ๐ธ๐ค
Will there be a Russian - American prisoner swap in 2024? ๐ท๐บ๐บ๐ธ๐ค
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Russia is holding a couple of Americans whom the US State department says have been wrongfully detained including: Paul Whelan (since โ18) and Evan Gershkovich (since March).
In 2022, Russia swapped Brittney Griner for Victor Bout. Will there be another prisoner swap between Russia and the US in 2024?
For this to count, the jailed American must be on US (or allied) soil before the end of 2024. The released American doesnโt necessarily need to be Evan or Paul either.
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Alexei Navalny was raised in preliminary prisoner swap talks before his death
Big, if true. Does this signal that Russia is more or less open to prisoner swaps now?
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEightโs performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (แน) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with แน1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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