We’re talking about Alex Garland’s Civil War (2024), which opens on April 12th. How much will it make opening weekend (which only counts the domestic box office)?
This resolves to all correct answers once the actuals have come in (typically on Monday/Tuesday). If you’re seeing any numbers like $14,000,000, these are estimates.
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One leading service shows the much buzzed-about movie starting off with a strong $21 million thanks to interest among younger males, and even among younger females...The tracking service’s full range is $18 million to $24 million for Civil War.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/civil-war-movie-box-office-tracking-1235857295/
@MickBransfield added more tiers! i’d love nothing more than for this movie to be successful and good
@Shrewdan it's listed as a "wide release", but typically I don't think we'd hear exactly how many screens until the final ~week (roughly)
@Ziddletwix hmmm typically A24's wide releases are on the low end of screens for a wide release but I can't find any more details on it either.
@Shrewdan Yeah AFAIK the info just isn't available (nor is the number necessarily fixed) until closer to release date. Even after pre-sales begin (so there's some rough minimum bound for # of screens), I don't think the full # is settled (e.g. I can't find a count for Godzilla X Kong).
FWIW, personally I wouldn't read too much into A24's historical screen counts. "Civil War" is ~double the budget of anything else A24 has done, so the screen counts for the typical A24 movie mean very little (i.e. the movie is decidedly different from anything else they've tried, so historical comparisons can't tell you too much). I'd be surprised if Civil War didn't have 3000+. (but not sure if it'll be 3500+, even some big-ish movies get in the low 3000s)
@Ziddletwix thanks, good info. I'm trying to find an intersection between Alex Garland, A24 and screen count. Plus the buzz on this movie is huge.
Of course I'm in the red on Manifold so I wouldn't put any stock in my philosophy 😆.
@Shrewdan Well I wouldn’t worry too much about it—tbh if you’re putting in the work to look up screen counts & etc that’s more than most people in these markets so I’m sure you’ll bounce back soon