NVDA returns over the next 10 years will outperform the returns of CSCO between 1999 and 2009
NVDA returns over the next 10 years will outperform the returns of CSCO between 1999 and 2009
6
1kṀ5302034
70%
chance
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1W
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Many pundits have compared 2024 Nvidia to 1999 Cisco, in that both are providing "plumbing infrastructure" for booming markets (Internet in 1999 and AI in 2024).
Examples:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/06/is-nvidia-doomed-to-be-the-next-cisco-what-investo/
https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1ao5hbt/could_nvda_go_the_way_of_cisco/
Between June 4, 1999 and June 4, 2009, the total return (including splits and dividend reinvestment) of CSCO was -32.89%, or -3.72% annualized.
This market resolves to YES if on June 4, 2034, the trailing 10 year returns from NVDA exceed this amount.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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