Matthew's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.71
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Matthew bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
40%
50%
60%
80%
- Will the Special Grand Jury in Fulton County Georgia recommend an indictment of someone(s) other than Donald Trump?YESṀ200
- 15. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?YESṀ130
- Will the Special Grand Jury in Fulton County Georgia recommend an indictment of someone(s) other than Donald Trump?YESṀ50
90%
- Will the Special Grand Jury in Fulton County Georgia recommend an indictment of someone(s) other than Donald Trump?YESṀ230
- Will the Special Grand Jury in Fulton County Georgia recommend an indictment of Donald Trump?YESṀ120
- Will the Special Grand Jury in Fulton County Georgia recommend an indictment of Donald Trump?YESṀ100