Will Gerd Kommer outperform JPMorgan over 10 years?
Will Gerd Kommer outperform JPMorgan over 10 years?
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Gerd Kommer is a well-known finance author in Germany. He just released his own ETF: L&G Gerd Kommer Multifactor Equity UCITS ETF USD Accumulating
ISIN IE0001UQQ933 WKN WELT0A
One direct competitor as a "multifactor" ETF is JPMorgans A2PJEP. We align the time to full years, so 10 years from 2024 to 2034.
Resolves YES if WELT0A has grown more (relatively) than A2PJEP from 2024-01-01 to 2034-01-01. I'll just some ETF website, so taxes, trading fees, and other factors are ignored.
Resolves NO if A2PJEP grows more.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.